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世界水泵行业的未来展望

      

世界泵业市场将从现在的每年低于300亿美元/年达到2016年的490亿美元/年。

当世界的GDP在未来十年仅以每年4%的速度增长时,泵业市场也将以每年5%的速度增长。尽管这种增长**于例如欧洲基础工业(钢铁、化工、造纸)等某些地区和部门,而且只有1%-2%。McIlvaine公司主要依据几个主要方面做出了这个增长预测,而这些方面包括:新能源、亚洲城市化和水务基础投资。


泵在油类和气类生产、精炼行业和电力生产行业中扮演着越来越重要的角色。油气的缺乏导致了在燃料替代品方面巨大的投资。在Alberta,新型沥青砂工厂所需要的泵产品每年将超过5千万美元。合成燃料项目包括煤的液化等将助推泵类产品每年出售数亿美元。液化天然气代替传统燃气的使用将对在液化地点的泵类投资产生重要的影响,这些液化地点包括液化气体的罐装运输,以及目的地的气化等。以煤为燃料的工厂衍生出来了多种泵产品包括在蒸汽循环、水和废水处理等大压力服务项目中的使用。中国和美国将是*大的购买者。乙醇工厂需要泵来输送水和处理谷物和糖类作物变为燃料。在未来十年,数百座这样的工厂将会被修建。

亚洲的城市化进程使得数以亿计的人们从乡村来到城市。这将营造一个巨大的基础设施需求,这些基础设施包括饮用水的输送、医疗设施和废水处理等领域。亚洲泵类市场的迅速增长将有助于在造纸、化工、钢铁和其他基础工业的大量投资。

Pump Market to Reach $49 Billion by 2016 The world market forpumps will grow from just under $30 billion this year to $49billion/yr by 2016. This latest forecast from the McIlvaine Companyis included in the continually updated online, Pumps: WorldMarkets. While world GDP will grow only 4 percent per year duringthe next ten years, the pump market will grow at 5 percent peryear. This is despite growth of only 1 – 2 percent per year in someregions and sectors such as European basic industry (steel,chemicals, pulp and paper).McIlvaine Company bases its growthforecast on the following major drivers: new energy sources,urbanization of Asia, and the investment in waterinfrastructure.Pumps play an important role in oil and gasproduction, refining, and power generation. The scarcity of oil andgas is leading to immense investments in substitute fuels. Theinvestment in pumps required for just new tar sands plants inAlberta will exceed $50 million/yr. The synthetic fuels programincluding coal liquefaction as well as tar sands and oil shale willboost pump sales by hundreds of millions of dollars/yr.The use ofLNG to replace conventional gas will result in significant pumpinvestments at the liquefaction sites, on the tankers deliveringthe liquefied gas, and at the regasification terminals.There is aboom in the construction of coal-fired power plants and along withit a variety of pumps including those for high pressure services inthe steam cycle, water and wastewater, and for the big scrubbersrequired to capture the SO2. China and the U.S. will be the biggestpurchasers.Ethanol facilities require pumps to deliver the waterand process the corn or sugar cane into fuel. Hundreds of theseplants will be built in the next decade.The urbanization of Asiainvolves the relocation of more than one billion people from thefarms to the cities. This will create a huge need forinfrastructure including delivery of drinking water and removal andtreatment of wastewater. Rapid growth of the pump market in Asiawill also be aided by large investments in pulp and paper,chemical, steel, and other basic industries.The most importantfactor in the growth of the pump industry will be the increasingdemand for decreasing supplies of uncontaminated water. Remediationof contaminated ground water, desalination of seawater, and othertreatment processes will increasingly be needed to make use of thisfinite resource. Asia has less available water per capita thanother continents and will also have a more rapidly increasingdemand for delivery and treatment of that water. Therefore, almosthalf the investment in pumps for water-related applications willcome from Asia.

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